Publications du Laboratoire SAF

Publications antérieures ou hors HAL :

2017

Boulier J.F., Brexit, an un, paru dans Option Finance, Mai 2017


Boulier J.F., Quelle nouvelle crise nous menace, et comment s'en prémunir ?, paru dans Gestion de Fortune, Juin 2017

Boulier J.F., M&M, paru dans Option Finance le 19 juin 2017

Boulier J.F., Chronique d'une très grande crise (couverture), aux éditions MA éditions - ESKA, Avril 2017

Boulier J.F., Long Term Savings Performances: The 40 year track record of Afer funds, paru dans Bankers, Markets & Investors n°146 (janvier-février 2017)

Viot C, Benraïss-Noailles L (2017), Qu’en est-il de l’attractivité des entreprises low-cost ? Le rôle du Capital-Marque Employeur, Revue Française de Gestion, Numéro spécial Low cost, (accepté le 29 mai 2017), à paraître

2016

Boulier J.F., Les frontières seront-elles efficientes ? , paru dans Risques n°108 (décembre 2016)


Boulier J.F., Brexit et conséquences, paru dans Option Finance (Octobre 2016)

Boulier J.F., Fierté française, paru dans Le Revenu (Septembre 2016)

2015

Decision thresholds and changes in risk for preventive treatment
Health Economics, DOI: 10.1002/hec.3127.
C. COURBAGE, B. REY

Phase-type aging modeling for health dependent costs
Insurance : Mathematics and Economics
M. GOVORUN, G. LATOUCHE, S. LOISEL

Un modèle de projection pour des contrats de retraite dans le cadre de l’ORSA
Bulletin Français d’Actuariat, vol. 14, n°28.
F. BONNIN, F. COMBES, F. PLACNHET, M. TAMMAR

M. Kacem, C. Lefèvre, S. Loisel. (2015). Convex extrema for nonincreasing discrete distributions: Effects of convexity constraints, Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications 423, 1774-1791.

J.Tomas and F.Planchet. (2015), Prospective mortality tables: taking heterogeneity into account, Insurance : Mathematics & Economics. 

On tail dependence coefficients of transformed multivariate Archimedean copulas, Fuzzy Sets and Systems, Available online 5 September 2015, ISSN 0165-0114,http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.fss.2015.08.030.
E. DI BERNARDINO, D. RULLIERE

On the estimation of Pareto fronts from the point of view of copula theory
Information Sciences, Volume 324, 10 December 2015, Pages 270-285, ISSN 0020-0255, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ins.2015.06.037.
M. BINOIS, D. RULLIERE, O. ROUSTANT
 
Estimation of multivariate critical layers: Applications to rainfall data (2015)
Journal SFDS, vol. 156, no.1, pp 11–50, ISSN 2102-6238.
E. DI BERNARDINO, D; RULLIERE

A paraitre

Index for predicting insurance claims from wind storms with an application in France, Risk Analysis
A.MORNET, T.OPITZ, M.LUZI, S.LOISEL (2015)

A. Boumezoued, N. El Karoui, S. Loisel, (2015). Measuring mortality heterogeneity with multi-state models and interval-censored data, Working paper Preprint sur Hal. 

E. Debonneuil, S. Loisel, F. Planchet, (2015). Do actuaries believe in longevity deceleration?, Working paper Preprint sur Hal.

P.O. Goffard, S. Loisel, D. Pommeret. Polynomial approximations for bivariate aggregate claims amount probability distributions, soumis.

P.O. Goffard, S. Loisel, D. Pommeret. A polynomial expansion to approximate the ultimate ruin probability in the compound Poisson ruin model, en révision dans Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics.

V. Maume-Deschamps, D. Rullière, K. Saïd. On capital allocation by minimizing multivariate risk indicators. Soumis.

N.El Karoui, Y. Salhi, S. Loisel, Robust Detection of Unobservable Disorder Time in Poisson Rate, preprint 2015, soumis.

O. Lopez, X. Milhaud, P. Thérond. (2015), Consistency of tree-based estimators in censored regression with applications in insurance. Preprint

O. Lopez, X. Milhaud, P. Therond. Consistency of tree-based estimators in censored regression with applications in insurance

Discrete Schur-constant models
Journal of Multivariate Analysis
A. CASTANER, M.M, CLARAMUNT, C. LEFEVRE, S. LOISEL

Viot C. (2015), Le dialogue marque-client : une réalité ? La revue des marques, n° 82, Octobre, 58-62.

Viot C., Le Roux A., Kremer F. (2014), Attitude envers l’achat de contrefaçons : déterminants et effet sur l’intention d’achat, Recherches et Applications en Marketing, 29, 2, 3-33.

Viot C., Benraïss-Noailles L (2014), Employeurs, Démarquez-vous. La marque employeur, un gisement de valeur inexploité ?, Management International, 18, 3, 1-22.
t, J. Tomas. [2014c] Construire une table de mortalité prospective : le package ELT, Bulletin Français d’Actuariat, vol. 14, n°27.

Q. Guibert, F. Planchet. (2014) Construction de lois d'expérience en présence d'évènements concurrents : Application à l'estimation des lois d'incidence d'un contrat dépendance, Bulletin 

Q. Guibert, F. Planchet. (2014) Construction de lois d'expérience en présence d'évènements concurrents - Application à l'estimation des lois d'incidence d'un contrat dépendance. Bulletin Français d'Actuariat, 13(27), 5-28.Q. Guibert, M. Juillard, T-O. Nteukam, F. Planchet. (2014) Solvabilité Prospective en Assurance -Méthodes quantitatives pour l'ORSA, Paris : Economica.

F. Planchet, J. Tomas. (2014b) Constructing Entity Specific Mortality Table: Adjustment to a Reference, European Actuarial Journal, Volume 4, Issue 2, pp 247-279, doi: 10.1007/s13385-014-0095-y.

F. Planchet, J. Tomas. (2014a) Uncertainty on Survival Probabilities and Solvency Capital Requirement: Application to LTC Insurance, Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, doi: 10.1080/03461238.2014.925496.

F. Bonnin, M. Juillard, F. Planchet. (2014) Best Estimate Calculations of Savings Contracts by Closed Formulas -Application to the ORSA, European Actuarial Journal, Vol. 4, Issue 1, Page 181-196. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13385-014-0086-z

Properties of a risk measure derived from the expected area in red
Insurance : Mathematics and Economics, Vol.55, 191-199
S. LOISEL, J. TRUFIN

Benchmark values for higher order coefficients of relative risk aversion,
Theory and Decision, Vol.76, 81-94.
M. DENUIT, B. REY

Some characteristics of an equity security next-year impairment,
Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, february, 1-25.
J.AZZAZ, S.LOISEL, P.THEROND

A survey of some recent results on Risk Theory,
ESAIM Proceedings, 44, 322-337.
F.AVRAM, R. BIARD, Ch. DUTANG, S. LOISEL, L. RABEHASAINA

A paraitre
Convex extrema for nonincreasing discrete distributions : effects of convexity constaints, JMAA.
M.KACEM, C.LEFEVRE, S.LOISEL (2014)

Risk indicators with several lines of business : comparison, asymptotic behavior and applications to optimal reserve allocation, annales de l’ISUP
P.CENAC, S.LOISEL, V.MAUME-DESCHAMPS, C.PRIEUR (2014)

Ruin problems with worsening risks or with infinite mean claims, Stochastic models.
D.KORTSCHAK, S.LOISEL, P.RIBEREAU (2014)

F. Bonnin, A. De Clermont-Tonnerre, F. Planchet, D. Sapone, M. Tammar. (2014) Valeur économique de dettes subordonnées pour des sociétés non-vie, Les cahiers de recherche de l’ISFA, n° 2014.15.

Q. Guibert, F. Planchet. (2014) Non-Parametric Inference of Transition Probabilities Based on Aalen Johansen Integral Estimators for Semi-Competing Risks Data: Application to LTC Insurance, Les cahiers de recherche de l’ISFA, n°2014.14.

Y. Laïdy, F. Planchet. (2014) Calibrating LMN Model to Compute Best Estimates in Life Insurance, Les cahiers de recherche de l’ISFA, n°2014.13.

T. O. Nteukam, F. Planchet, J. Ren. (2014) Internal Model in Life insurance: Application of Least Square Monte-Carlo in Risk Assessment, Les cahiers de recherche de l’ISFA, n°2014.12.

H. Bensusan, N. El Karoui, S. Loisel, Y. Salhi, Partial Splitting of Longevity and Financial Risks : The Longevity Nominal Choosing Swaptions, en révision à IME.

Q. Guibert, F. Planchet. (2014) Non-Parametric Inference of Transition Probabilities Based on AalenJohansen Integral Estimators for Semi-Competing Risks Data: Application to LTC Insurance. Soumis Life Time Data Analysis. 

Viot C., Le Roux A., Kremer F. (2014), Attitude envers l’achat de contrefaçons : déterminants et effet sur l’intention d’achat, Recherches et Applications en Marketing, 29, 2, 3-33.

Viot C., Benraïss-Noailles L (2014), Employeurs, Démarquez-vous. La marque employeur, un gisement de valeur inexploité ?, Management International, 18, 3, 1-22.


2013 

The « A+B/u » rule for discrete and continuous time risk models with dependence,
Insurance : Mathematics and Economics, 53, issue 3, 774-785.
Ch. DUTANG, C. LEFEVRE, S. LOISEL

On multiply monotone distributions, continuous or discrete, with applications,
Journal of Applied Probability, 50(3), 603-907.
C. LEFEVRE, S. LOISEL

Impact of climate change on heat wave risks,
Risks, 1(3), 176-191
R.BIARD, C. BLANCHET-SCALLIET, A. EYRAUD-LOISEL, S.LOISEL

On certain transformations of Archimedean copulas : Application to the non-parametric estimation of their generators,
Dependence Modeling, Vol.1, 1-36
E. DI BERNARDINO, D.RULLIERE

Another look at risk apportionment,
Journal of Mathematical Economics, 49, 335-343.
M. DENUIT, B. REY

On multivariate extensions of value-at-risk,
Journal of multivariate analysis, 119, 32-46.
A. COUSIN, E. DI BERNARDINO

On finite-time ruin probabilities with dependence between reinsurance cycles and the claim arrival process,
Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, Vol. 2013, Issue 3, 163-185.
M. BARGES, S. LOISEL & X. VENEL

The density of the ruin time for a renewal-reward process perturbed by a diffusion,
Applied Mathematics Letters, 26, 108-112, (DOI) 10.1016/j.aml.2012.04.003.
C. BLANCHET-SCAILLET, D. DOROBANTU, D. RULLIERE

Solvency assessment within the ORSA framework : issues and quantitative methodologies,
Bulletin Français d’Actuariat, Vol.13, n°25, janvier-juin, 35-71.
L. DEVINEAU, J. VEDANI

An extension of Davis and Lo’s contagion model,
Quantitative Finance, vol.13, 3, 407-420, (DOI) 10.1080/14697688.2012.727015.
A. COUSIN, D. DOROBANTU, D. RULLIÈRE

The density of the ruin time for a renewal-reward process perturbed by a diffusion,
Applied Mathematics Letters, 26, 108-112, (DOI) 10.1016/j.aml.2012.04.003.
C. BLANCHET-SCALLIET, D. DOROBANTU, D. RULLIÈRE

Exploring or reducing noise? A global optimization algorithm in the presence of noise,
Structural and Multidisciplinary Optimization, vol.47, 6, 921-936, (DOI) 10.1007/s00158-012-0874-5.
D. RULLIERE, A. FALEH, F. PLANCHET, W. YOUSSEF

Distortions of multivariate distribution functions and associated level curves: applications in multivariate risk theory,
Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Vol.53(1), 190-205.
E. DI BERNARDINO, D. RULLIERE

L’évaluation du travail dans les établissements de santé publics : déstabilisation des acteurs et remise en question des valeurs,
Entreprises et Humanisme, n°309, 16p.
S.BERTEZENE, B. DUBRION

Moderniser les pratiques d’évaluation du travail dans la fonction publique : analyse exploratoire du cas d’un hôpital public,
Formation Emploi, Vol.1, n°121, 83-105.
S.BERTEZENE, B. DUBRION

Le contrôle et le pilotage de la performance éthique : résultats de recherches-interventions dans le secteur médico-social,
Management et Avenir, n°65, novembre, 17p.
S.BERTEZENE

Cost effectiveness of pegfilgrastrim versus filgrastim after high-dose chemotherapy and autologous stem cell transplantation in patients with lymphoma and myeloma (an economic evaluation of the PALM Trial),
Applied Health Economics and Health Policy, (DOI) 10.1007/s40258-013-0011-7.
L. PERRIER, A. LEFRANC, D. PROL, P. QUITTET, A. SCHMIDT-TANGUY, C. SIANI, C. DE PERETTI

Quadratic hedging : an actuarial view extended to solvency control,
European Actuarial Journal, (DOI) 10.1007/s13385-013-0066-8.
R. NORBERG

Optimal hedging of demographic risk in life insurance,
Finance and Stochastics, Vol.17, 197-222, (DOI) 10.1008/s00780-012-0182-3.
R. NORBERG

Some new classes of stationary max-stable random fields,
Statistics and Probability Letters, 83, 1496-1503.
C. ROBERT

Ultimate ruin probability in discrete time with Bühlmann credibility premium adjustements,
Bulletin Français d’Actuariat, Vol.13, n°25, 73-102.
J. TRUFIN, S. LOISEL

Competition among non-life insurers under solvency constraints : a game-theoretic approach,
European Journal of Operational Research, 31(3), 702-711.
C. DUTANG, H. ALBRECHER, S. LOISEL

A paraitre

The bottom-up top-down puzzle solved, CreditFlux.
A. COUSIN, T. BIELECKI, S. CREPEY, A. HERBERTSSON (2013)

Dynamic hedging of portfolio credit risk in a Markov copula model, forthcoming in Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications.
A. COUSIN, T. BIELECKI, S. CREPEY, A. HERBERTSSON (2013)

A bottom-up dynamic model of portfolio credit risk with stochastic intensities and random recoveries, accepted for publication in Communiction in Statistics – Theory and methods.
A. COUSIN, T. BIELECKI, S. CREPEY, A. HERBERTSSON (2013)

Some mixing properties of conditionally mixing processes, accepted, to appear in Communication in Statistics : Theory and methods.
M. KACEM, S. LOISEL, V. MAUME-DESCHAMPS (2013)

Estimation of the parameters of a Markov-modulated loss process in insurance, accepted, to appear in Insurance : Mathematics and Economics.
A. GUILLOU, S. LOISEL, G. STUPFLER (2013)

Regards croisés sur les infections nosocomiales : de la responsabilité juridique à l’évaluation des coûts, Droit, Déontologie et Soins, à paraître.
S.BERTEZENE, D. RONDEAU (2013)

Prevention and Precaution, chapter of book, The Handbook of Insurance (édition révisée), Kluwer Academic Publishers, A paraître.
Ch. COURBAGE, B. REY, N. TREICH (2013)

Le contrôle et le pilotage de la performance éthique : résultats de recherches-interventions dans le secteur médico-social, Management et Avenir, n°65, novembre, 17p.
S.BERTEZENE (2013)

Automatic declustering of rare events, to appear in Biometrika.
C. ROBERT (2013)

Estimating the efficient price from the order flow : a Brownian Cox process approach, to appear in Stocastic Processes and their Applications.
S. DELATTRE, C. ROBERT, M. ROSENBAUM (2013)

Market Value Margin calculations under the Cost of Capital approach within a Bayesian chain ladder framework, to appear in Insurance : Mathematics and Economics.
C. ROBERT (2013)

On multiply monotone distributions, continuous or discrete, with applications, accepted, to appear in Journal of Applied Probability.
C. LEFEVRE, S. LOISEL (2013)

Quels sont les effets des pédagogies actives dans l’apprentissage de l’entrepreunariat ? Etude des changements de perceptions des élèves ingénieurs et managers à l’issue de la formation M.I.M.E (Méthode d’Initiation au Métier d’Entrepreneur), La revue de l’Entrepreneuriat, A paraître.
M. SALGADO, O. TOUTAIN (2013)
Viot C. (2012), Subjective knowledge, product attributes and consideration set: the wine case, International Journal of Wine Business Research, 24, 3, 219-248.
N° 47 - Benraïss-Noailles L., Viot C. (2012), Les jeunes, les recruteurs et les réseaux sociaux, Personnel, 528, Mars-Avril, 64-65.
eb and face-to-face in travel surveys : comparability, challenges,
Transportation, 1-25
C. BAYART, P. BONNEL

Delta-Hedging Correlation Risk ?
Review of Derivatives Research, 15(1), 25-56
A. COUSIN, S. CREPEY & Y. HANG KAN

Understanding, modelling and managing longevity risk : key issues and main challenges,
Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, Vol. 2012, n°3, 203-231.
P. BARRIEU, H. BENSUSAN, N. EL KAROUI, C. HILLAIRET, S. LOISEL, C. RAVANELLI, Y. SALHI

Iterative adjustment of survival functions by compositions of probability distortions,
The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, 37, 156-179, (DOI) 10.1057/grir.2011.7.
A. BIENVENÜE, D. RULLIÈRE

The effect of derivative instrument use on capital market risk : evidence from banks in developed and emerging countries,
Frontiers in Finance and Economics, Vol.9, n°2, 85-121.
M.R. KEFFALA, C. DE PERETTI, C.Y. CHAN

Corporate Governance and Voluntary Recognition of ESOs Expenses,
The Empirical Economics Letters, Vol.11, n°5.
C.Y. CHAN, S.L. SU, C. DE PERETTI

La confiance, levier de l’engagement dans les PME en forte croissance,
Revue Française de Gestion, Vol.5, n°224, 65-84.
E. BELLIATO, C. CHAMPAGNE DE LABRIOLLE, I. PRIM-ALLAZ, M. SEVILLE

On relative and partial risk attitudes : theory and implications,
Economic Theory, 50, 151-167.
W.H. CHIU, L. EECKHOUDT, B. REY

Intérêt du modèle « Hurdle » pour la comparaison des comportements de mobilité déclarée dans un protocole d’enquête mixte,
Recherche Transports Sécurité, 28, 33-45.
C. BAYART, P. BONNEL

Optimal stopping for Markov processes and decreasing affine functions, Romanian
Journal of Pure and Applied Mathematics, 56, 4, 283-294.
D. DOROBANTU

Empirical Test of the Efficiency of the UK Covered Warrants Market: Stochastic Dominance and Likelihood Ratio Test Approach,
Journal of Empirical Finance, Volume 19, Issue 1, January, 162-174. Impact Factor: 0.807. Social Science Research Network Working Paper Series 1546355.
C.Y. CHAN, C. DE PERETTI, Z. QIAO, W.K. WONG

Stochastic and Tychastic Approaches to Guaranteed ALM Problem,
Bulletin Français d’Actuariat, vol. 12, n°23.
J.P. AUBIN, L. CHEN, O. DORDAN, A. FALEH, G. LEZAN, F. PLANCHET

Pricing of Parisian options for a jumpdiffusion model with two-sided jumps,
Applied Mathematical Finance, 19(2), 97-129.
H. ALBRECHER, D. KORTSCHAK, X. ZHOU

On semiparametric estimation of ruin probabilities in the classical risk model,
Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 1-26, iFirst article.
E. MASIELLO

Priority setting in health care and higher order degree change in risk,
Journal of Health Economics, 31, 484-489.
C. COURBAGE, B. REY

Optimal prevention and other risks in a two-period model,
Mathematical Social Sciences, 63, 213-217.
C. COURBAGE, B. REY

A quadratic hedging approach to comparison of catastrophe indices, International,
Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance, Vol.15, Issue 4, (DOI) 10.1142/s0219024912500306.
R. NORBERG, O. SAVINA

Risk and insurability of storm damages to residential buildings in Austria,
The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice.
F. PRETTENTHLER, H. ALBRECHER, J. KOBERL, D. KORTSCHAK

Optimal hedging of demographic risk in life insurance,
Finance and Stochastics, (DOI) 10.1007/s00780-012-0182-3.
R. NORBERG

Risk processes with dependence and premium adjusted to solvency targets.
European Actuarial Journal, Vol.2, Issue 1, 1-20 (DOI) 10.1007/s13385-012-0046-4.
C. CONSTANTINESCU, V. MAUME-DESCHAMPS, R. NORBERG

Some multivariate risk indicators ; minimization by using a Kiefer-Wolfowitz approach to the mirror stochastic algorithm,
Statistics and Risk Modeling, 29 (1), 47-71.
P. CENAC, C. PRIEUR, V. MAUME-DESCHAMPS

A paraitre

Présentation du marché de l'assurance vie en Afrique subsaharienne francophone, Assurances et gestion des risques, A paraître.
A. KAMEGA, F. PLANCHET (2012)

Quadratic Hedging by an Influent Informed Investor, à paraître dans Stochastics : An International Journal of Probability and Stochastic Processes.
A. EYRAUD-LOISEL (2012)

Are Fieller and bootstrap methods really equivalent for calculating confidence regions for ratios: an application to the MPIS data, Health; Decision and Management, à paraître.
C. SIANI, C. DE PERETTI (2012)

Understanding, modelling and managing longevity risk : key issues and main challenges, Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, Vol. 2012, N°3, 203-231.
P. BARRIEU, H. BENSUSAN, N. EL KAROUI, C. HILLAIRET, S. LOISEL, C. RAVANELLI, Y. SALHI (2012)

A bottom-up dynamic model of portfolio credit risk, Part I : Markov copula perspective, forthcoming in recent advances in financial engineering – World scientific.
A. COUSIN, T. BIELECKI, S. CREPEY, A. HERBERTSSON (2012)

A bottom-up dynamic model of portfolio credit risk, Part II : common-shock interpretation, calibration and hedging issues, forthcoming in recent advances in financial engineering – world scientific
A. COUSIN, T. BIELECKI, S. CREPEY, A. HERBERTSSON (2012)

Kremer F., Viot C. (2012), How Store brands build retailer brand image and store loyalty, International Journal of Retail and Distribution Management, 40, 7, 528-543.

Benraïss-Noailles L., Viot C. (2012), Intégration des médias sociaux dans les stratégies de recherche d’emploi et de recrutement, Revue Française de Gestion, Numéro spécial « Entreprises et vie privée », 38, 224, 125-138.

Viot C. (2012), Endossement, pseudo endossement et co-endossement d’une marque patronymique : potentiel et intérêt pour une stratégie marketing, Décisions Marketing, 66, Avril-Juin, 21-33.

Viot C., G. Bressolles (2012) Les agents virtuels intelligents : quels atouts pour la relation client ? Décision Marketing, 65, Janvier-Mars, 45-56.

Viot C. (2012), Subjective knowledge, product attributes and consideration set: the wine case, International Journal of Wine Business Research, 24, 3, 219-248.

Benraïss-Noailles L., Viot C. (2012), Les jeunes, les recruteurs et les réseaux sociaux, Personnel, 528, Mars-Avril, 64-65.



2011

Subsampling weakly dependent times series and application to extremes,
Test, 20, 499-502.
P. DOUKHAN, S. PROHL & C. ROBERT

Risk models based on time series for count random variables
Insurance : Mathematics and Economics, 48, 19–28.
H. COSSETTE, E. MARCEAU, F. TOUREILLE

A new approach for the dynamics of ultra high frequency data: the model with uncertainty zones.
Journal of Financial Econometrics, 9, 344-366.
C. ROBERT, M. ROSENBAUM (2011)

Comment mettre œuvre un ‘encadrement’ plus éthique des personnes âgées au sein des établissements médico-sociaux ?,
Forum, n°134, décembre, 14p.
S. BERTEZENE

Quality and non-quality in the health sector,
Sinergie, n°85/11, 16 p. pp. 15-31.
S. BERTEZENE, J. MARTIN

Note of caution when interpreting parameters of the distribution of excesses,
Water Resources, 34, 1215–1221.
P. RIBEREAU, P. NAVEAU, A. GUILLOU


Quelle structure de dépendance pour un générateur de scénarios économiques en assurance ?,
Bulletin Français d’Actuariat, vol. 11, n°22.
K. ARMEL, F. PLANCHET, A. KAMEGA

Is the consumption-income ratio stationary ? Evidence from a non-linear panel unit root test for OECD and non-OECD countries, Manchester School, forthcoming,
Impact Factor, 0.333.
C. STUWART, M. CERRATO, C. DE PERETTI

Polynomial structures in rank statistics distributions,
Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, 141, 1380-1393.
C. LEFEVRE, P. PICARD

Option Hedging by an Influential Informed Investor,
Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, 27, 707-722.
A. EYRAUD-LOISEL

Hedging Default Risks of CDOs in Markovian Contagion Models,
Quantitative Finance, volume 11, Issue 12, 1773-1791.
A.COUSIN, J.P. LAURENT, J.D. FERMANIAN

Model risk and determination of economic capital in the Solvency 2 project,
International Review of Applied Financial Issues and Economics, Vol. 3, Issue 2. 
F. PLANCHET, P. THÉROND

Hétérogénéité : mesure du risque d'estimation dans le cas d’une modélisation intégrant des facteurs observables,
Bulletin Français d’Actuariat, vol. 11, n°21. 
A. KAMEGA, F. PLANCHET

Optimal strategies of hedging portfolio of unit-linked life insurance contracts with minimum death guarantee,
Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Volume 48, Issue 2, pp. 161-175.
T.O. NTEUKAM, F. PLANCHET, P. THÉROND

Fast remote but not extreme quantiles with multiple factors. Applications to Solvency II and Enterprise Risk Mangement,
European Actuarial Journal, Vol. 1, 131-157.
M. CHAUVIGNY, L. DEVINEAU, S. LOISEL, V. MAUME-DESCHAMPS

First passage time law for some Lévy processes with compound Poisson : Existence of a density,
Bernoulli 17(4), 1127-1135.
L. COUTIN, D. DOROBANTU

A propos de la tempérance,
Revue Economique, Vol. 62, 751-764.
D. CRAINICH, L. EECKHOUDT, B. REY

Risk vulnerability: a graphical interpretation,
Theory and Decision, 71, 227-234.
L. EECKHOUDT, B. REY

Transparency matters: Price formation in presence of order preferencing,
Journal of Financial Markets, 14, 227-258.
L. LESCOURRET, C. ROBERT

Surrender triggers in life insurance : classification and risk predictions,
Bulletin Français d’Actuariat, 11 (22), 5-48.
X. MILHAUD, S. LOISEL, V. MAUME-DESCHAMPS

Impacts of jumps and stochastic interest rates on the fair costs of guaranteed minimum death benefit contracts,
The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, 36, 51-73.
F. QUITTARD-PINON, R. RANDRIANARIVONY

A new approach for the dynamics of ultra high frequency data : the model with uncertainty zones,
Journal of Financial Econometrics, 9(2), 344-366,
C. ROBERT, M. ROSENBAUM

Tous sur scène ! Comment le théâtre peut-il aider à former les cadres ?
Gestion, Volume 35/Numéro 4.
M. SALGADO

Asymptotic finite-time ruin probabilities for a class of path-dependent claim amounts using Poisson spacings,
Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, 27, 503-518.
R. BIARD, C. LEFEVRE, S. LOISEL, H.N. NAGARAJA

Adjustment coefficient for risk processes in some dependent contexts,
Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, 13 (4), 695-721.
H. COSSETTE, E. MARCEAU, V. MAUME-DESCHAMPS

A paraitre

From deterministic to stochastic surrender risk models : impact of correlation crises on economic capital, to appear in European Journal of Operational Research.
S. LOISEL, X. MILHAUD (2011)

Second order tail asymptotics for the sum of dependent, tailindependent regularly varying risks, Accepted: Extremes.
D. KORTSCHAK (2011)

Explicit ruin formulas for models with dependence among risks, to appear in Insurance : Mathematics and Economics.
H. ALBRECHER, C. CONSTANTINESCU, S. LOISEL (2011)

Moments of a compound Poisson models with dependence based on the FGM copula and discounted claims, to appear in ASTIN Bulletin.
M. BARGES, H. COSSETTE, S. LOISEL, E. MARCEAU (2011)

Iterative adjustment of survival functions by compositions of probability distortions, to appear in Geneva Risk and Insurance Review.
A. BIENVENUE, D. RULLIERE (2011)

Ruin probabilities in models with a Markov chain dependence structure, Accepted: Scandinavian Actuarial Journal.
C. CONSTANTINESCU, D. KORTSCHAK, V. MAUME-DESCHAMPS (2011)

Plug-in estimation of level sets in a non compact setting with applications in multivariate risk theory. accepté pour publication à ESAIM P&S.
E. DI BERNARDINO, T. LALOE, V. MAUME-DESCHAMPS, C. PRIEUR (2011)

Viot C. (2011), Can brand identity predict brand extension’s success or failure? Journal of Product & Brand Management, 20, 3, 216-227.

2010

Exchange Option when One Underlying Can Jump,
Finance, vol 31, N°1/2010, 33-53.
F. QUITTARD-PINON, R. RANDRIANARIVONY

Protection of Life Insurance Companies in a Market-based Framework,
North American Actuarial Journal, vol 14, N° 1, 131-151.
F. QUITTARD-PINON, C. BERNARD, O. LE COURTOIS

Fair costs of guaranteed minimum death benefit contracts,
Mathematical and Statistical Methods for Actuarial Sciences and Finance, M. Corraza and C. Pizzi Eds, Springer Verlag, 283-293.
F. QUITTARD-PINON, R. RANDRIANARIVONY


Enquête déplacements web – face-à-face : quelle comparabilité ?,
Cahiers Scientifiques du Transport, 57, 141-167.
C. BAYART, P. BONNEL

Le potentiel du web pour les enquêtes de mobilité,
Courrier des Statistiques, 129, 6p.
C. BAYART, P. BONNEL

L’impact du mode d’enquête sur la mesure des comportements de mobilité,
Economie et Statistique, n° 437.
C. BAYART, P. BONNEL

Asymptotic behavior of the finite-time expected time-integrated negative part of some risk processes,
Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications, Vol. 367(2), 535-549.
R. BIARD, S. LOISEL, C. MACCI, N. VERAVERBEKE

Nonparametric statistical analysis of an upper bound of the ruin probability under large claims,
Extrêmes, Vol. 13, n° 4, 439-461.
P.L. CONTI, E. MASIELLO

Applications de techniques stochastiques pour l'analyse prospective de l'impact comptable du risque de taux,
Bulletin Français d’Actuariat, vol. 11, n°21. 
F. BONNIN, F. PLANCHET, M. JUILLARD

La mesure du prix de marché du risque : quels outils pour une utilisation dans les modèles en assurance ?
Assurances et gestion des risques, Vol.78 (3/4). 
A. CAJA, F. PLANCHET

Les générateurs de Scénarios Économiques : de la conception à la mesure de la qualité. Assurances et gestion des risques,
Insurance and Risk Management Journal, Montreal, Vol.78, 1-2.
A. FALEH, F. PLANCHET, D. RULLIERE

On the efficient evaluation of ruin probabilities for completely monotone claim size distributions,
Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics, 233(10), 2724-2736.
H. ALBRECHER, F. AVRAM, D. KORTSCHAK

An asymptotic expansion for the tail of compound sums of Burr distributed random variables,
Statistics and Probability Letters, 80(78), 612-620.
D. KORTSCHAK, H. ALBRECHER

Quasi-Monte Carlo Techniques and Rare Event Sampling.Schweiz,
Aktuarver, Mitt., (1-2), 56-70.
J. HARTINGER, D. KORTSCHAK

Higher order expansions for compound distributions and ruin probabilities with subexponential claims,
Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 110(2), 105-135.
H. ALBRECHER, C. HIPP, D. KORTSCHAK

Discrete-time risk models based on time series for count random variables,
Astin Bulletin, 40(1), 123-150.
H. COSSETTE, E. MARCEAU, V. MAUME-DESCHAMPS

On non-monetary measures in the face of risks and the sign of the derivatives,
Bulletin of Economic Research, 62, 295-304.
C. COURBAGE, B. REY

Some consequences of correlation aversion in decision science,
Annals of Operations Research, 176, 259-269.
M. DENUIT, L. EECKHOUDT, B. REY

Prudence, temperance, edginess and risk apportionment as decreasing sensitivity to detrimental changes,
Mathematical Social Sciences, Vol. 60, 137-143.
M. DENUIT, B. REY

L’horizon temporel dans Solvabilité 2,
Bulletin Français d’Actuariat, Vol. 10, n° 19, 43-62.
A. DERIEN

Testing the type of a semi-martingale: Ito against multifractal,
Electronic Journal of Statistics, 4, 1300-1323.
L. DUVERNET, C. ROBERT, M. ROSENBAUM

Graphical methods for investigating the finite-sample properties of confidence regions,
Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 54, 262-271.
C. DE PERETTI, C. SIANI

Credit risk premia and quadratic BSDEs with a single jump,
International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance, 13, 1103-1129.
S. ANKIRCHNER, A. EYRAUD-LOISEL, M. ROYER-CARENZI

BSDEs with random terminal time under enlarged filtration. American-style options hedging by an insider,
Random Operators and Stochastic Equations, Volume 18, Issue 2, 141-163.
A. EYRAUD-LOISEL, M. ROYER-CARENZI

Hedging Default Risks of CDOs in Markovian Contagion Models,
Quantitative Finance, 1-19.
J-P. LAURENT, A. COUSIN, J-D. FERMANIAN

Stationary-excess operator and convex stochastic orders,
Insurance : Mathematics and Economics, Vol. 47, 64-75.
C. LEFEVRE, S. LOISEL

Preserving preference rankings under non financial background risk,
Journal of the Operational Research Society, 61, 1302-1308.
Y. MALEVERGNE, B. REY

Les comportements de rachat en assurance vie en regime de croisière et en période de crise,
Risques, n° 83, Septembre.
X. MILHAUD, M.P. GONON, S. LOISEL

Approximations comonotones pour le prix d’une option d’achat Européenne en présence de dividendes discrets,
Bulletin Français d’Actuariat, Vol. 10, n° 19, 5-42.
P.A. PATARD, J.C. AUGROS

On asymptotic distribution of maxima of stationary sequences subject to random failure or censoring,
Statistics and Probability Letters, 80, 134-142.
C. ROBERT

On the microstructural hedging error. SIAM
Journal of Financial Mathematics, 1, 427-453.
C. ROBERT, M. ROSENBAUM

On the limiting spectral distribution of the covariance matrices of time-lagged processes,
Journal of Multivariate Analysis, 101, 2434-2451.
C. ROBERT, M. ROSENBAUM


A paraitre
Hedging of defaultable contingent claims using BSDE with uncertain time horizon, Bulletin Français d’Actuariat, à paraître.
C. BLANCHET-SCALLIET, A. EYRAUD-LOISEL, M. ROYER-CARENZI (2010)

2009

Asymptotic results for the sum of dependent non-identically distributed random variables,
Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, 11, 279-306.
D. KORTSCHAK, H. ALBRECHER

On ruin probability and aggregate claim representations for Pareto claim size distributions,
Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 45(3): 362-373.
H. ALBRECHER, D. KORTSCHAK

On the efficiency of the Asmussen-Kroeseestimators and its application to stop-loss transforms Blatter DGVFM 30(2), 363-377.
J. HARTINGER, D. KORTSCHAK

Finite-time ruin probabilities for discrete, possibly dependent, claim severities,
Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, 11, 425-441.
C. LEFEVRE, S. LOISEL

TVaR-based capital allocation with copulas,
Insurance : Mathematics and Economics, Vol. 45, 348-361.
M. BARGES, H. COSSETTE, E. MARCEAU

Mastering performance through quality and networking, Total Quality,
Management, Vol. 21, n°4, pp.413-428.
S. BERTEZENE, J. MARTIN

Maîtriser la performance par la qualité et l'organisation réticulaire: l'exemple des établissements médico-sociaux,
Revue Marocaine de Commerce et de Gestion.
S. BERTEZENE, J. MARTIN

A Comparative Analysis of CDO Pricing Models under the Factor Copula Framework,
Journal of Derivatives, Vol. 16, n°4, 9-37.
X. BURTSCHELL, J. GREGORY, J-P. LAURENT

Regularity of the Euclid algorithm, application to the analysis of fast GCD algorithm,
Journal of Symbolic Computation, 44, n°7, 726-767.
E. CESARATTO, J. CLEMENT, B. DAIREAUX, L. LHOTE, V. MAUME-DESCHAMPS, B. VALLEE

Risk aggregation in Solvency II: How to converge the approaches of the internal models and those of the standard formula ?
Bulletin Français d’Actuariat, Vol. 9, n° 18, 107-145.
L. DEVINEAU, S. LOISEL

Construction d’un algorithme d’accélération de la méthode des « simulations dans les simulations » pour le calcul du capital économique Solvabilité II,
Bulletin Français d’Actuariat, Vol. 9, n° 17, 189-222.
L. DEVINEAU, S. LOISEL

Optimal strategies in a risky debt context,
An International Journal of Probability and Stochastics Processes, Vol. 81, Nos. 3-4,269-277.
D. DOROBANTU, M. MANCINO, M. PONTIER

Mesure des risques de marché et de souscription vie en situation d’information incomplète pour un portefeuille de prévoyance,
Bulletin Français d’Actuariat, Vol. 9, n° 18, 79-105.
J.P. FELIX, F. PLANCHET

Estimating Copula Densities through Wavelets,
Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 44, 170-181.
C. GENEST, E. MASIELLO, K. TRIBOULAY

A strong hysteretic model for Okun’s law: theory and preliminary investigation,
International Review of Applied Economics, Vol. 3, Issue 4, July 2009, 445-462.
D. LANG, C. DE PERETTI

Finite-time ruin probabilities for discrete, possibly dependent, claim severities,
Methodology and Computing in Applied probability, Vol. 11, n° 3, 425-441.
C. LEFEVRE, S. LOISEL

Convergence and asymptotic variance of bootstrapped finite-time ruin probabilities with partly shifted risk processes,
Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Vol. 45, Issue 3, 374-381.
S. LOISEL, C. MAZZA, D. RULLIERE

Sensitivity analysis and density estimation for finite-time ruin probabilities,
Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics, Vol. 230, n° 1, 107-120.
S. LOISEL, N. PRIVAULT

On cross risk vulnerability,
Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Vol. 45, 224-229.
Y. MALEVERGNE, B. REY

Rentes en cours de service : un nouveau critère d'allocation d'actif,
Bulletin Français d'Actuariat, Vol. 9, n° 17, 37-69.
F. PLANCHET, P. THEROND

Asymptotic distributions for the intervals estimators of the extremal index and the cluster-size distribution,
Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, 139, 3288-3309.
C. ROBERT

Inference for the limiting cluster size distribution of extreme values,
The Annals of Statistics, 37, 271-310.
C. ROBERT

A sliding blocks estimator for the extremal index,
Electronic Journal of Statistics, 3, 993–1020.
C. ROBERT, J. SEGERS, C. FERRO

Tourism destination competitiveness: The french regions case,
European Journal of Tourism Research, Vol.2, No.2.
E. ROBINOT, L. BOTTI, N. PEYPOCH, B. SOLONANDRASANA

Les jeux d'entreprises : un outil de formation au management,
Revue Éducation Permanente, n° 178/2009-1, 143-150.
M. SALGADO

Gestion stratégique d’un fonds de pension en temps continu,
Bulletin Français d’Actuariat, Vol. 9, n° 17, 110-153.
M. TALFI

2008

On finite-time ruin probabilities for classical risk models,
Scandinavian Actuarial Journal 1, 41-60.
C. LEFEVRE, S. LOISEL

Impact of correlation crises in risk theory: Asymptotics of finite-time ruin probabilities for heavy-tailed claim amounts when some independence and stationary assumptions are relaxed,
Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 43, 412-421.
R. BIARD, C. LEFEVRE, S. LOISEL

Spectral risk measures and portfolio selection,
Journal of Banking and Finance, Vol. 32, n°9, 1870-1882.
A. ADAM, M. HOUKARI, J-P. LAURENT

Pricing derivatives with barriers in a stochastic interest rate environment,
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 32, 2903-2938.
C. BERNARD, O. LE COURTOIS, F. QUITTARD-PINON

On the willingness to pay to reduce risks of small losses,
Journal of Economics, 95, 75-82.
C. COURBAGE, B. REY

Comparison results for exchangeable credit risk portfolios,
Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Vol. 42, n°3, 1118-1127.
A. COUSIN, J-P. LAURENT

Actuar : An R Package for Actuarial Science,
Journal of Statistical Software, Volume 25, Issue 7.
C. DUTANG, V. GOULET, M. PIGEON

Fair valuation of participating life insurance contracts with jumps risk,
The Geneva Review on Risk and Insurance Theory, Vol. 33, 106-136.
O. LE COURTOIS, F. QUITTARD-PINON

On some key research issues in Enterprise Risk Management related to economic capital and diversification effect at group level,
Bulletin Français d'Actuariat, No. 15, Vol. 9.
W. FISHER, S. LOISEL, S. WANG

Mortality fluctuations modelling with a shared frailty approach,
Life & Pensions, octobre, 39-44.
S. FULLA, J-P. LAURENT

Exponential inequalities for VLMC empirical trees. ESAIM Prob. Stat., 12, 119-229.
A. GALVES, V. MAUME-DESCHAMPS, B. SCHMITT

The optimal capital structure of the firm with stable Lévy asset returns,
Decisions in Economics and Finance, 31, 51-72.
O. LE COURTOIS, F. QUITTARD-PINON

Robustness analysis and convergence of empirical finite-time ruin probabilities and estimation risk solvency margin,
Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Volume 42, Issue 2, April, 746-762.
S. LOISEL, C. MAZZA, D. RULLIERE

Perturbations extrêmes sur la dérive de mortalité anticipée,
Assurances et Gestion des Risques, Vol. 76(3)
F. PLANCHET, M. JUILLARD, P. THEROND

Valuing Options in Jump Diffusion Models using Generalized Fourier Analysis,
Banque & Marchés, n° 97, novembre-décembre.
F. QUITTARD-PINON, R. RANDRIANANIVONY

Calibrage d’options pour trois modèles mixtes diffusions et sauts,
Revue Finance, vol. 29, n° 2, 103-130.
F. QUITTARD-PINON, R. RANDRIANANIVONY

How to price efficiently European options in some geometric Lévy processes models,
International Journal of Business, vol. 13, n° 4, 301-314.
F. QUITTARD-PINON, R. RANDRIANANIVONY

Tails of random sums of a heavy-tailed number of light-tailed terms,
Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 43, 85-92.
C. ROBERT, J. SEGERS

Estimating the multivariate extremal index function,
Bernoulli, 14, 1027-1064.
C. ROBERT

Le théâtre, un outil de formation au management,
Revue Française de Gestion, Vol. 34/181, 77-96.
M. SALGADO

IFRS, solvabilité 2, embedded value : quel traitement du risque ?
Bulletin Français d’Actuariat, vol. 8, n° 15, janvier-juin, 67-96.
P. THEROND

2007

Contrôle interne, contrôle externe et qualité : le cas des services et établissements sociaux et médico-sociaux,
Economie et Management, juin, 8 p.
S. BERTEZENE

Comment mesurer l’éthique dans les services et établissements sociaux et médico-sociaux ?
Droit Déontologie et Santé, septembre, 15 p.
S. BERTEZENE, J.J. NILLES

Beyond the Gaussian Copula: Stochastic and Local Correlation,
Journal of Credit Risk, Vol. 3, n°1, 31-62.
X. BURTSCHELL, J. GREGORY, J-P. LAURENT

Precautionary Saving in the Presence of Other Risks,
Economic Theory, 32: 414-424.
C. COURBAGE, B. REY

Negative binomial version of the Lee-Carter model for mortality forecasting,
Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry. Volume 23, Issue 5, 385-401.
A. DELWARDE, M. DENUIT, C. PARTRAT

A good sign for multivariate risk taking,
Management Science, 53: 117-124.
L. EECKHOUDT, B. REY, H. SCHLESINGER

Time to ruin, insolvency penalties and dividends in a Markov-modulated multirisk model with common shocks,
Bulletin Français d'Actuariat, No. 14, Vol. 8, 4-24.
S. LOISEL

Outils numériques pour la simulation Monte Carlo des produits dérivés complexes,
Bulletin Français d’Actuariat, vol. 8, n° 14, 74-117.
P.A. PATARD

Construction de tables de mortalité prospectives : le cas des petites populations,
Bulletin Français d'Actuariat, Vol. 7, n° 14, 118-146.
F. PLANCHET, V. LELIEUR

L’utilisation des splines bi-dimensionnels pour l'estimation de lois de maintien en arrêt de travail,
Bulletin Français d’Actuariat, Vol. 7, n° 13.
F. PLANCHET, P. WINTER

Stochastic stability of some state-dependent growth-collapse processes,
Advances in Applied Probability, 39, 1-32.
C. ROBERT

Analysing the performance of bootstrap neural tests for conditional heteroskedascity in ARCH-M models,
Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Vol. 51, Issue 5, February, 2442-2460.
C. SIANI, C. DE PERETTI

Provisions et capital de solvabilité d'une compagnie d'assurance : méthodologie d'utilisation de Value-at-Risk,
Assurances et Gestion des Risques, Vol. 74 (4).
P. THEROND, F. PLANCHET

2006

A nonhomogeneous risk model for insurance,
Computers and Mathematics with Applications, 51, 325-334.
C. LEFEVRE, Ph. PICARD

Le point sur les options parisiennes et leurs applications,
Banque & Marchés n°82.
C. BERNARD, O. LE COURTOIS

Development and pricing of a new participating contract,
North American Actuarial Journal, 10(4), 179-195.
C. BERNARD, O. LE COURTOIS, F. QUITTARD-PINON

Alternative Risk Measures for Alternative Investments,
Journal of Risk, Vol. 8, n°4, 1-32.
A. CHABAANE, J-P. LAURENT, Y. MALEVERGNE, F. TURPIN

Prudence and optimal prevention for health risks,
Health Economics, Vol 15, n°12, 1323-1327. 
Ch. COURBAGE, B. REY

Decision-making with the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio under uncertainty, Health and System Science, SAS - 9/2006, Information decision patient, 111-145.
C. DE PERETTI, C. SIANI

Risk-Neutral and Actual Default Probabilities with an Endogenous Bankruptcy Jump-Diffusion Model, Asia-Pacific 
Financial Markets, 13, 11- 39.
O. LE COURTOIS, F. QUITTARD-PINON

Extreme dependence of multivariate catastrophic losses,
Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 2006-4, 203-225.
L. LESCOURRET, C. ROBERT

On the pricing of power and other polynomial options,
Journal of Derivatives, Vol. 13, n°4: 61-71. 
S. MACOVSCHI, F. QUITTARD-PINON

On the power of generalized extreme value (GEV) and generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) estimators for empirical distributions of stock returns,
Applied Financial Economics, Vol. 16, n° 3, 271 – 289.
Y. MALEVERGNE, V. PISARENKO, D. SORNETTE

Exponential inequalities and functional estimations for weak dependent data; applications to dynamical systems,
Stochastics and Dynamics, 6, no. 4, 535-560.
V. MAUME-DESCHAMPS

Exponential inequalities and estimation of conditional probabilities, Lect. notes in Stat.,
Springer, Vol. 187, 123-140.
V. MAUME-DESCHAMPS

Étude du risque systématique de mortalité,
Assurances et Gestion des Risques, Vol. 74 (3). 
F. PLANCHET, L. FAUCILLON, M. JUILLARD

Mesure de l'incertitude tendancielle sur la mortalité – application à un régime de rentes,
Assurances et Gestion des Risques, Vol 75 (3). 
F. PLANCHET, M. JUILLARD

Backward stochastic differential equations with jumps and related non-linear expectations,
Stochastic Processes and Their Applications, Vol. 116, n°10, 1358-1376.
M. ROYER

Fieller's method performance in problematic cases for decision-making,
Health and System Science, SAS - 9/2006, Information decision patient, 205-226.
C. SIANI, C. DE PERETTI

Flux RSS HAL

  • [hal-02314914] Optimal prevention of large risks with two types of claims
    29 octobre 2020
    In this paper, we propose and study a risk model with two types of claims in which the insurer may invest into a prevention plan which decreases the intensity of large claims without impacting the small claims. We identify a necessary and sufficient condition for insurers to use prevention if there is no surplus. If, in addition, the severity of large claims dominates that of small claims by the harmonic mean residual life (HMRL) order, insurers invest more in prevention in the presence of a surplus. Finally, we characterize the asymptotic optimal prevention strategy when the initial surplus tends to infinity in the two main cases where both claim types are light-tailed and where one of them is light-tailed and the other one is heavy-tailed.
  • [hal-00746859] Basis risk modelling: a co-integration based approach
    29 octobre 2012
    Most mortality models are generally calibrated on national population. However, pensions funds and annuity providers are mainly interested in the mortality rates of their own portfolio. In this paper we put forward a multivariate approach for forecasting pairwise mortality rates of related population. The investigated approach links national population mortality to a subset population using an econometric model that captures a long-run relationship between both mortality dynamics. This model does not lay the emphasis on the correlation that the two given mortality dynamics would present but rather on the long-term behaviour, which suggests that the two time-series cannot wander off in opposite directions for very long without mean reverting force on grounds of biological reasonableness. The model additionally captures the short-run adjustment between the considered mortality dynamics. Our aim is to propose a consistent approach to forecast pairwise mortality and to some extent to better control and assess basis risk underlying index-based longevity securitization. An empirical comparison of the forecast of one-year death probabilities of portfolio-experienced mortality is performed using both a factor-based model and the proposed approach. The robustness of the model is tested on mortality rate data for England & Wales and Continuous Mortality Investigation assured lives representing a sub-population.
  • [hal-01282601] Lapse risk in life insurance: correlation and contagion effects among policyholders' behaviors
    15 septembre 2016
    The present paper proposes a new methodology to model the lapse risk in life insurance by integrating the dynamic aspects of policyholders’ behaviors and the dependency of the lapse intensity on macroeconomic conditions. Our approach, suitable to stable economic regimes as well as stress scenarios, introduces a mathematical framework where the lapse intensity follows a dynamic contagion process, see [Dassios A. and Zhao H. (2011): A dynamic contagion process, Advances in Applied Probability, Vol. 43:3, p. 814–846]. This allows to capture both contagion and correlation potentially arising among insureds’ behaviors. In this framework, an external market driven jump component drives the lapse intensity process depending on the interest rate trajectory: when the spread between the market interest rates and the contractual crediting rate crosses a given threshold, the insurer is likely to experience more surrenders. A log-normal dynamic for the forward rates is introduced to build trajectories of an observable market variable and mimic the effect of a macroeconomic triggering event based on interest rates on the lapse in- tensity. Contrary to previous works, our shot-noise intensity is not constant and the resulting intensity process is not Markovian. Closed-form expressions and analytic sensitivities for the moments of the lapse intensity are provided, showing how lapses can be affected by massive copycat behaviors. Further analyses are then conducted to illustrate how the mean risk varies depending on the model’s parameters, while a simulation study compares our results with those obtained using standard practices. The numerical outputs highlight a potential misestimation of the expected number of lapses under extreme scenarios when using classical stress testing methodologies.
  • [hal-00504022] Regularity of the Euclid Algorithm, Application to the analysis of fast GCD Algorithms
    12 novembre 2014
    There exist fast variants of the gcd algorithm which are all based on principles due to Knuth and Schönhage. On inputs of size n, these algorithms use a Divide and Conquer approach, perform FFT multiplications with complexity μ(n) and stop the recursion at a depth slightly smaller than lgn. A rough estimate of the worst-case complexity of these fast versions provides the bound O(μ(n)logn). Even the worst-case estimate is partly based on heuristics and is not actually proven. Here, we provide a precise probabilistic analysis of some of these fast variants, and we prove that their average bit-complexity on random inputs of size n is Θ(μ(n)logn), with a precise remainder term, and estimates of the constant in the Θ-term. Our analysis applies to any cases when the cost μ(n) is of order Ω(nlogn), and is valid both for the FFT multiplication algorithm of Schönhage-Strassen, but also for the new algorithm introduced quite recently by Fürer [Fürer, M., 2007. Faster integer Multiplication. In: Proceedings of STOC'07. pp. 57-66]. We view such a fast algorithm as a sequence of what we call interrupted algorithms, and we obtain two main results about the (plain) Euclid Algorithm, which are of independent interest. We precisely describe the evolution of the distribution of numbers during the execution of the (plain) Euclid Algorithm, and we exhibit an (unexpected) density ψ which plays a central rôle since it always appears at the beginning of each recursive call. This strong regularity phenomenon proves that the interrupted algorithms are locally "similar" to the total algorithm. This ultimately leads to the precise evaluation of the average bit-complexity of these fast algorithms. This work uses various tools, and is based on a precise study of generalised transfer operators related to the dynamical system underlying the Euclid Algorithm.
  • [hal-03964279] The links between difficult working conditions and sickness absences in the case of French workers
    31 janvier 2023
    This study empirically links objective measures of arduous working conditions and financial incentive indicators with sick leave use. We use a 2017 French survey on occupational hazards and sick leaves linked to information on the individual level of sick pay extracted from collective bargaining agreements. Our results show that physical constraints are not linked to short-term sick leave use whereas psychosocial constraints are significantly associated with more sick leave spells and a high cumulative number of sick days. Moreover, the relationship between sick pay and use seems ambiguous because of the heterogeneity in behavioural responses.
  • [hal-01955227] Contribution of alcohol use disorders to the burden of dementia in France 2008–13: a nationwide retrospective cohort study
    14 décembre 2018
    BACKGROUND: Dementia is a prevalent condition, affecting 5-7% of people aged 60 years and older, and a leading cause of disability in people aged 60 years and older globally. We aimed to examine the association between alcohol use disorders and dementia risk, with an emphasis on early-onset dementia (<65 years). METHODS: We analysed a nationwide retrospective cohort of all adult (≥20 years) patients admitted to hospital in metropolitan France between 2008 and 2013. The primary exposure was alcohol use disorders and the main outcome was dementia, both defined by International Classification of Diseases, tenth revision discharge diagnosis codes. Characteristics of early-onset dementia were studied among prevalent cases in 2008-13. Associations of alcohol use disorders and other risk factors with dementia onset were analysed in multivariate Cox models among patients admitted to hospital in 2011-13 with no record of dementia in 2008-10. FINDINGS: Of 31 624 156 adults discharged from French hospitals between 2008 and 2013, 1 109 343 were diagnosed with dementia and were included in the analyses. Of the 57 353 (5·2%) cases of early-onset dementia, most were either alcohol-related by definition (22 338 [38·9%]) or had an additional diagnosis of alcohol use disorders (10 115 [17·6%]). Alcohol use disorders were the strongest modifiable risk factor for dementia onset, with an adjusted hazard ratio of 3·34 (95% CI 3·28-3·41) for women and 3·36 (3·31-3·41) for men. Alcohol use disorders remained associated with dementia onset for both sexes (adjusted hazard ratios >1·7) in sensitivity analyses on dementia case definition (including Alzheimer's disease) or older study populations. Also, alcohol use disorders were significantly associated with all other risk factors for dementia onset (all p<0·0001). INTERPRETATION: Alcohol use disorders were a major risk factor for onset of all types of dementia, and especially early-onset dementia. Thus, screening for heavy drinking should be part of regular medical care, with intervention or treatment being offered when necessary. Additionally, other alcohol policies should be considered to reduce heavy drinking in the general population. FUNDING: None.
  • [halshs-03353393] Health and Wealth : How do they Affect Individual Preferences
    24 septembre 2021
    There is no consensus among health economists about the specification of individual preferences that best fits observed behaviors. One crucial point of disagreement concerns the sign of the interaction between health and wealth in individual utility functions. We propose here a simple, static, model where individuals have only one decision to make concerning their future health ( say to get a flu shot). We derive very simple testable implications that allow to discriminate between three specifications that are commonly used in theoretical models: additive separability between health and consumption, multiplicative separability, and existence of a monetary equivalent of health. We also derive several implications on the pattern of the demand for health insurance.
  • [hal-01803854] Les consommateurs face a la contrefaçon : une comparaison entre Belges et Français
    31 mai 2018
    En dépit de son ampleur et de son développement, le phénomène de la contrefaçon a été peu étudié sous l'angle de la demande. Partant du point de vue du consommateur, les auteurs dressent une revue de la littérature en marketing sur l'attitude à l'égard de la contrefaçon. Une analyse factorielle exploratoire permet d'identifier et de comparer, dans un double contexte belge et français, la perception qu'ont les jeunes consommateurs de la contrefaçon.
  • [hal-01582574] Adaptive Robust Control Under Model Uncertainty
    6 septembre 2017
    In this paper we propose a new methodology for solving an uncertain stochastic Marko-vian control problem in discrete time. We call the proposed methodology the adaptive robust control. We demonstrate that the uncertain control problem under consideration can be solved in terms of associated adaptive robust Bellman equation. The success of our approach is to the great extend owed to the recursive methodology for construction of relevant confidence regions. We illustrate our methodology by considering an optimal portfolio allocation problem, and we compare results obtained using the adaptive robust control method with some other existing methods.
  • [hal-00828948] Existence theorems for generalized Nash equilibrium problems: an analysis of assumptions
    13 octobre 2017
    The generalized Nash equilibrium, where the feasible sets of the players depend on other players' action, becomes increasingly popular among academics and practitionners. In this paper, we provide a thorough study of theorems guaranteeing existence of generalized Nash equilibria and analyze the assumptions on practical parametric feasible sets.
  • [hal-00589696] Estimation of the parameters of a Markov-modulated loss process in insurance
    30 avril 2011
    We present a new model of loss processes in insurance. The process is a couple $(N, \, L)$ where $N$ is a univariate Markov-modulated Poisson process (MMPP) and $L$ is a multivariate loss process whose behaviour is driven by $N$. We prove the strong consistency of the maximum likelihood estimator of the parameters of this model, and present an EM algorithm to compute it in practice. The method is illustrated with simulations and real sets of insurance data.
  • [hal-00746251] On an asymptotic rule A+B/u for ultimate ruin probabilities under dependence by mixing
    30 août 2013
    The purpose of this paper is to point out that an asymptotic rule "A+B/u" for the ultimate ruin probability applies to a wide class of dependent risk models, in discrete and continuous time. Dependence is incorporated through a mixing approach among claim amounts or claim inter-arrival times, leading to a systemic risk behavior. Ruin corresponds here either to classical ruin, or to stopping the activity after realizing that it is not pro table at all, when one has little possibility to increase premium income rate. Several special cases for which closed formulas are derived, are also investigated in some detail.
  • [hal-00746245] Competition among non-life insurers under solvency constraints: A game-theoretic approach
    28 octobre 2012
    In this paper, we formulate a noncooperative game to model a non-life insurance market. The aim is to analyze the e ects of competition between insurers through di erent indicators: the market premium, the solvency level, the market share and the underwriting results. Resulting premium Nash equilibria are discussed and numerically illustrated.
  • [hal-00965279] Estimating the parameters of a seasonal Markov-modulated Poisson process
    24 février 2017
    Motivated by seasonality and regime-switching features of some insurance claim counting processes, we study the statistical analysis of a Markov-modulated Poisson process featuring seasonality. We prove the strong consistency and the asymptotic normality of a maximum split-time likelihood estimator of the parameters of this model, and present an algorithm to compute it in practice. The method is illustrated on a small simulation study and a real data analysis.
  • [hal-01026373] On the consistency of Sobol indices with respect to stochastic ordering of model parameters.
    21 juillet 2014
    In the past decade, Sobol's variance decomposition have been used as a tool - among others - in risk management. We show some links between global sensitivity analysis and stochastic ordering theories. This gives an argument in favor of using Sobol's indices in uncertainty quantification, as one indicator among others.
  • [hal-03861242] Impact of in Situ Simulated Climate Change on Communities and Non-Indigenous Species: Two Climates, Two Responses
    3 avril 2023
    Climate change constitutes a major challenge for marine urban ecosystems and ocean warming will likely strongly affect local communities. Non-Indigenous Species (NIS) have been shown to often have higher heat resistance than natives, but studies investigating how forthcoming global warming might affect them in marine urban environments remain scarce, especially in situ studies. Here we used an in situ warming experiment in a NW Mediterranean (warm temperate) and a NE Atlantic (cold temperate) marina to see how global warming might affect recruited communities in the near future. In both marinas, warming resulted in significantly different community structure, lower biomass, and more empty space compared to control. However, while in the warm temperate marina, NIS showed an increased surface cover, it was reduced in the cold temperate one. Metabolomic analyses on Bugula neritina in the Atlantic marina revealed potential heat stress experienced by this introduced bryozoan and a potential link between heat stress and the expression of a halogenated alkaloid, Caelestine A. The present results might indicate that the effects of global warming on the prevalence of NIS may differ between geographical provinces, which could be investigated by larger scale studies.
  • [hal-03847613] A pseudo-likelihood estimator of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck parameters from suprema observations
    26 février 2024
    In this paper we propose an estimator for the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck parameters based on observations of its supremum. We derive an analytic expression for the density of the supremum. Making use of the pseudo-likelihood method based on the supremum density, our estimator is constructed as the maximal argument of this function. Using weak-dependency results, we prove some statistical properties on the estimator such as consistency and asymptotic normality. Finally, we apply these statistical tools to simulated and real data.
  • [hal-02491127] Semiparametric two-sample admixture components comparison test: The symmetric case
    9 mai 2022
    In this paper, we consider admixture models which are two-component mixture distributions having one known component. This is the case when a gold standard reference component is well known, and when a population contains such a component plus another one with different features. When two populations are drawn from such models, we propose a penalized chi2-type testing procedure allowing a pairwise comparison of the unknown components, i.e. to test the equality of their residual features densities, under a symmetry condition. A numerical study is carried out from a large range of simulation setups to illustrate the asymptotic properties of our test. Moreover the testing procedure is applied on a real-world case: galaxy velocities datasets, where stars heliocentric velocities mixed with the Milky Way are compared.
  • [hal-03611354] Cluster size distributions of extreme values for the Poisson–Voronoi tessellation
    17 mars 2022
    We consider the Voronoi tessellation based on a homogeneous Poisson point process in an Euclidean space. For a geometric characteristic of the cells (e.g., the inradius, the circumradius, the volume), we investigate the point process of the nuclei of the cells with large values. Conditions are obtained for the convergence in distribution of this point process of exceedances to a homogeneous compound Poisson point process. We provide a characterization of the asymptotic cluster size distribution which is based on the Palm version of the point process of exceedances. This characterization allows us to compute efficiently the values of the extremal index and the cluster size probabilities by simulation for various geometric characteristics. The extension to the Poisson–Delaunay tessellation is also discussed.
  • [hal-03448339] On a Markovian game model for competitive insurance pricing
    25 novembre 2021
    In this paper, we extend the non-cooperative one-period game of Dutang et al. (2013) to model a non-life insurance market over several periods by considering the repeated (one-period) game. Using Markov chain methodology, we derive general properties of insurer portfolio sizes given a price vector. In the case of a regulated market (identical premium), we are able to obtain convergence measures of long run market shares. We also investigate the consequences of the deviation of one player from this regulated market. Finally, we provide some insights of long-term patterns of the repeated game as well as numerical illustrations of leadership and ruin probabilities.
  • [hal-02278733] Mesure du risque de perte d’autonomie totale en France métropolitaine
    4 septembre 2019
    Ce papier s’intéresse à la construction de loi d’incidence pour la perte d’autonomie totale sur la période 2010-2012 à partir des données des bases nationales d’hospitalisation (PMSI 2008-2013). Nos résultats sont décomposés selon deux types de dépendance : dépendance cognitive (ou démence) et dépendance physique. Les femmes présentent un risque légèrement plus important d’entrée en démence, alors que le risque lié à la dépendance physique est plus marqué chez les hommes. L’incidence en dépendance « toutes causes » est comparable entre hommes et femmes. Les résultats suggèrent un ralentissement de l’incidence aux delà de 90 ans et une convergence des hommes et des femmes aux grands âges. Les implications de ces résultats pour l’extrapolation aux grands âges sont discutées.
  • [hal-02277020] Asymptotic Domination of Sample Maxima
    3 septembre 2019
    For a given random sample from some underlying multivariate distribution F we consider the domination of the component-wise maxima by some independent random vector W with underlying distribution function G. We show that the probability that certain components of the sample maxima are dominated by the corresponding components of W can be approximated under the assumptions that both F and G are in the max-domain of attraction of some max-stable distribution function F and G, respectively. We study further some basic properties of the dominated components of sample maxima by W .
  • [hal-01616178] A survey of some recent results on Risk Theory
    13 octobre 2017
    The goal of this paper is to give recent results in risk theory presented at the Conference "Journée MAS 2012" which took place in Clermont Ferrand. After a brief state of the art on ruin theory, we explore some particular aspects and recent results. One presents matrix exponential approximations of the ruin probability. Then we present asymptotics of the ruin probability based on mixing properties of the claims distribution. Finally, the multivariate case, motivated by reinsurance, is presented and some contemporary results (closed forms and asymptotics) are given.
  • [hal-01616156] Competition among non-life insurers under solvency constraints: A game-theoretic approach
    13 octobre 2017
    We formulate a noncooperative game to model competition for policyholders among non-life insurance companies, taking into account market premium, solvency level, market share and underwriting results. We study Nash equilibria and Stackelberg equilibria for the premium levels, and give numerical illustrations.
  • [hal-01343702] Information uncertainty related to marked random times and optimal investment
    1 mars 2017
    We study an optimal investment problem under default risk where related information such as loss or recovery at default is considered as an exogenous random mark added at default time. Two types of agents who have different levels of information are considered. We first make precise the insider's information flow by using the theory of enlargement of filtrations and then obtain explicit logarithmic utility maximization results to compare optimal wealth for the insider and the ordinary agent. MSC: 60G20, 91G40, 93E20
  • [hal-01205753] Dynamics of multivariate default system in random environment
    16 novembre 2016
    We consider a multivariate default system where random environmental information is available. We study the dynamics of the system in a general setting and adopt the point of view of change of probability measures. We also make a link with the density approach in the credit risk modelling. In the particular case where no environmental information is concerned, we pay a special attention to the phenomenon of system weakened by failures as in the classical reliability system.
  • [hal-01206388] Kriging of financial term-structures
    8 avril 2016
    Due to the lack of reliable market information, building financial term-structures may be associated with a significant degree of uncertainty. In this paper, we propose a new term-structure interpolation method that extends classical spline techniques by additionally allowing for quantification of uncertainty. The proposed method is based on a generalization of kriging models with linear equality constraints (market-fit conditions) and shape-preserving conditions such as monotonicity or positivity (no-arbitrage conditions). We define the most likely curve and show how to build confidence bands. The Gaussian process covariance hyper-parameters under the construction constraints are estimated using cross-validation techniques. Based on observed market quotes at different dates, we demonstrate the efficiency of the method by building curves together with confidence intervals for term-structures of OIS discount rates, of zero-coupon swaps rates and of CDS implied default probabilities. We also show how to construct interest-rate surfaces or default probability surfaces by considering time (quotation dates) as an additional dimension.
  • [hal-01097403] On the estimation of Pareto fronts from the point of view of copula theory
    23 juin 2015
    Given a first set of observations from a design of experiments sampled randomly in the design space, the corresponding set of non-dominated points usually does not give a good approximation of the Pareto front. We propose here to study this problem from the point of view of multivariate analysis, introducing a probabilistic framework with the use of copulas. This approach enables the expression of level lines in the objective space, giving an estimation of the position of the Pareto front when the level tends to zero. In particular, when it is possible to use Archimedean copulas, analytical expressions for Pareto front estimators are available. Several case studies illustrate the interest of the approach, which can be used at the beginning of the optimization when sampling randomly in the design space.
  • [hal-00937071] Impact of Climate Change on HeatWave Risk
    27 janvier 2014
    We study a new risk measure inspired from risk theory with a heat wave risk analysis motivation. We show that this risk measure and its sensitivities can be computed in practice for relevant temperature stochastic processes. This is in particular useful for measuring the potential impact of climate change on heat wave risk. Numerical illustrations are given.
  • [hal-00925685] Risk processes with dependence and premium adjusted to solvency targets.
    8 janvier 2014
    This paper considers risk processes with various forms of dependence between waiting times and claim amounts. The standing assumption is that the increments of the claims process possess exponential moments so that variations of the Lundberg upper bound for the probability of ruin are in reach. The traditional point of view in ruin theory is reversed: rather than studying the probability of ruin as a function of the initial reserve under fixed premium, the problem is to adjust the premium dynamically so as to obtain a given ruin probability (solvency requirement) for a fixed initial reserve (the financial capacity of the insurer). This programme is carried through in various models for the claims process, ranging from Cox processes with i.i.d. claim amounts, to conditional renewal (Sparre Andersen) processes.
  • [hal-00870492] Density approach in modelling successive defaults
    24 octobre 2013
    We apply the default density framework developed in El Karoui et al. \cite{ejj1} to modelling of multiple defaults, which can be adapted to both top-down and bottom-up models. We present general pricing results and establish links with the classical intensity approach. Explicit models are also proposed by using the methods of change of probability measure or dynamic copula.
  • [hal-00804668] Statistical inference for Sobol pick freeze Monte Carlo method
    26 mars 2013
    Many mathematical models involve input parameters, which are not precisely known. Global sensitivity analysis aims to identify the parameters whose uncertainty has the largest impact on the variability of a quantity of interest (output of the model). One of the statistical tools used to quantify the influence of each input variable on the output is the Sobol sensitivity index. We consider the statistical estimation of this index from a finite sample of model outputs. We study asymptotic and non-asymptotic properties of two estimators of Sobol indices. These properties are applied to significance tests and estimation by confidence intervals.
  • [hal-00670649] Some mixing properties of conditionally independent processes
    15 février 2012
    In this paper we consider conditionally independent processes with respect to some dynamic factor. We derive some mixing properties for random processes when conditioning is given with respect to unbounded memory of the factor. Our work is motivated by some real examples related to risk theory.
  • [hal-00580624] Plug-in estimation of level sets in a non-compact setting with applications in multivariate risk theory
    30 septembre 2011
    This paper deals with the problem of estimating the level sets of an unknown distribution function $F$. A plug-in approach is followed. That is, given a consistent estimator $F_n$ of $F$, we estimate the level sets of $F$ by the level sets of $F_n$. In our setting no compactness property is a priori required for the level sets to estimate. We state consistency results with respect to the Hausdorff distance and the volume of the symmetric difference. Our results are motivated by applications in multivariate risk theory. In this sense we also present simulated and real examples which illustrate our theoretical results.
  • [hal-00430178] On finite-time ruin probabilities with reinsurance cycles influenced by large claims
    14 mai 2011
    Market cycles play a great role in reinsurance. Cycle transitions are not independent from the claim arrival process : a large claim or a high number of claims may accelerate cycle transitions. To take this into account, a semi-Markovian risk model is proposed and analyzed. A refined Erlangization method is developed to compute the finite-time ruin probability of a reinsurance company. As this model needs the claim amounts to be Phase-type distributed, we explain how to fit mixtures of Erlang distributions to long-tailed distributions. Numerical applications and comparisons to results obtained from simulation methods are given. The impact of dependency between claim amounts and phase changes is studied.
  • [hal-00564804] Ruin probabilities in models with a Markov chain dependence structure
    10 février 2011
    In this paper we derive explicit expressions for the probability of ruin in a renewal risk model with dependence described-by/incorporated-in the real-valued random variable Zk = −cτk + Xk , namely the loss between the (k − 1)–th and the k–th claim. Here c represents the constant premium rate, τk the inter-arrival time between the (k − 1)–th and the k–th claim and Xk is the size of the k–th claim. The dependence structure among (Zk )k>0 is given/driven by a Markov chain with a transition kernel satisfying an ordinary differential equation with constant coefficients.
  • [hal-00549788] Asymptotic Properties of Optimal Trajectories in Dynamic Programming
    22 décembre 2010
    We prove in a dynamic programming framework that uniform convergence of the finite horizon values implies that asymptotically the average accumulated payoff is constant on optimal trajectories. We analyze and discuss several possible extensions to two-person games.
  • [hal-00540621] Explicit ruin formulas for models with dependence among risks
    29 novembre 2010
    We show that a simple mixing idea allows to establish a number of explicit formulas for ruin probabilities and related quantities in collective risk models with dependence among claim sizes and among claim inter-occurrence times. Examples include compound Poisson risk models with completely monotone marginal claim size distributions that are dependent according to Archimedean survival copulas as well as renewal risk models with dependent inter-occurrence times.
  • [hal-01602875] Wind storm risk management: sensitivity of return period calculations and spread on the territory
    2 octobre 2017
    Modeling and forecasting damage from wind storms is a major issue for insurance companies. In this article, we focus on the sensitivity of estimations of return periods for extreme events with respect to modeling assumptions and the type of input data. Numerous variables play a role: the quality of data concerning the location of insured buildings and weather report homogeneity, missing updates for correcting non-stationarities concerning the insurance portfolio history, ground roughness or climate change, the evolution of the model after an unprecedented event such as the Lothar storm observed in 1999 in Europe, temporal aggregation of daily events over several days, where events could span over several days up to one week, and storm trajectories, which could change due to global warming or sweep larger areas. Our work explores three important aspects. First, we highlight the geographic heterogeneity of the spatial distribution of wind speeds and the resulting damages. Therefore, we propose to partition the French territory into 6 relatively homogeneous storm zones, based on the dependence among observed wind speeds and geographic distance. Second, we extend a storm index—defined in Mornet et al. (Risk Anal 35:2029–2056, 2015)—to take into account geographic heterogeneity, and we analyze its tail behavior to show the difficulties met to obtain reliable results on extreme events. Third, we explore the calculation of Solvency Capital Requirements based on a model that we propose for the annual claim amount distribution. The purpose of our analysis is to quantify and to point out the high level of uncertainty in the computation of return periods and of other quantities strongly influenced by extreme events.
  • [hal-02476291] Trends in the Control Strategies for Occupational Exposure to Carcinogenic, Mutagenic, and Reprotoxic Chemicals in France (2003-2010)
    12 février 2020
    European directives stipulate that French employers take all available measures to reduce the use of carcinogenic, mutagenic, and reprotoxic (CMR) chemicals. Our study explores the trends for the various control measures that are available to employees exposed to CMR agents, at two time points (2003 and 2010).Our study assessed data from the 2003 and the 2010 French national cross-sectional survey of occupational hazards (SUMER). The availability of collective protections (source-based controls and general ventilation) and personal protective equipment (PPE) was explored. Trends in the availability of protective measures were studied using multilevel logistic regressions.Exposure situations without any protective measures decreased considerably between 2003 and 2010 (29.9% versus 17.9%, respectively). The increase in the proportion of exposure situations involving source-based controls (e.g. an isolation chamber and local exhaust ventilation) was, however, much less. Multiple regression analysis showed that the protection strategies depended on the job characteristics (e.g. work schedules, the employment contract, and the occupation) as well as the size of the company. There were noticeable changes between 2003 and 2010. For example, differences in protections available between full-time and part-time workers disappeared in the 7-year period, whereas those between executives/managers and other employees increased, as did the gaps between large and small companies.Although the overall increase in exposure situations involving protective measures masks a number of differences in exposure between employee categories, it is a step in the right direction. Source-based controls appeared to be implemented more for exposures with the longest durations, and PPE was very often combined with collective protections, which is what is currently recommended.